News reports indicate that the number of births in 2025 (preliminary figures) was 705,809, marking the 10th consecutive year of decline and setting a new record low.The same demographic statistics (preliminary figures) report that the number of deaths was 1,605,654, resulting in a natural decrease (births minus deaths) of 899,845. Meanwhile, some analyses indicate that the number of marriages—505,656—has increased for the second consecutive year.
When looking at the numbers alone, news stories like this tend to end with comments like, “It’s gone down again” or “The declining birthrate shows no signs of stopping.” However, for people involved in fertility treatment or sperm donation—areas related to my work—these statistics feel less like “distant social issues” and more like a summary of what’s actually happening in their daily lives.
In this article, I’ll break down the recent news that “births have fallen to the 700,000 range for the 10th consecutive year”—the lowest on record—in the following order: (1) What happened (how to interpret the breaking news); (2) Why births don’t seem to increase even as marriages rise; and (3) How “options are increasing or decreasing” as seen from my work on the ground.
First, how to interpret “preliminary figures”
The figure of 705,809 people cited here is from a preliminary report on vital statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.
According to the explanation, this preliminary report is based on the “number of survey forms completed” and includes not only Japanese nationals in Japan but also foreign nationals in Japan, Japanese nationals abroad, and events that occurred in previous years.
In other words, preliminary figures are intended to provide a “quick overview” and are not defined in the same way as monthly reports (estimates) or annual reports (final figures) released later.
When looking at figures in the news, it’s a good idea to check just once whether they’re labeled as “preliminary”—this will help you avoid confusion later if the figures are slightly adjusted.
What Happened: Births Hit an All-Time Low, Population Decline Is Significant
The main point of the report is simple.
Number of births in 2025 (preliminary figures): 705,809. This represents a decrease of approximately 2.1% from the previous year, marking the 10th consecutive year of decline and the lowest figure on record.
Number of deaths in 2025 (preliminary figures): 1,605,654. The natural decrease (births minus deaths) was 899,845.
As births continue to decline while deaths remain at high levels, the rate of population decline will accelerate. This is a matter of simple arithmetic, not emotion. Unless birth rates recover, this structural population decline will continue.
What does it mean when people say, “Marriages are on the rise, but births are falling”?
Looking solely at the fact that the number of marriages has increased, some people might think, “Doesn’t that mean the birth rate will go up too?”
However, the number of marriages and the number of births do not necessarily correlate perfectly in the same year.
First, there is a time lag between marriage, pregnancy, and childbirth. It’s not as simple as saying that births will immediately increase in the year when marriage rates rise.
Furthermore, some observers point out that even if the number of marriages increases, the “time lag between marriage and the decision to have a child” has become longer than it used to be. An NRI column notes that while the number of marriages in 2025 is projected to reach 505,656 couples—a 1.1% increase from the previous year and the second consecutive year of growth—there is no guarantee that a rise in the marriage rate will directly lead to a rise in the birth rate.
To put it in practical terms, this means that the decisions regarding “whether or not to get married” and “whether or not to have children” have become more clearly separated than they were in the past.
And it is not only values but also living conditions—such as work, housing, household finances, and the availability of support—that are driving this separation further.
The Growing Trend of "Procrastination" Hidden Behind the Numbers
When I listen to the people around me, I often hear them say, “It’s not possible right now,” rather than “I don’t want children.”
Unpredictable changes in work
Unable to schedule time for medical appointments and treatment
Unable to maintain a stable income and expenditure
Difficulty relying on parents or close friends for support
When these factors coincide, it can be difficult to move from the intention to try for a baby to the actual process, even if the desire is there.
As a result, even after marriage, the path to childbirth becomes a long one. The statistics seem to reflect the cumulative effect of that “lengthened path.”
"Having more options" is different from "making more choices."
In news discussions about the declining birthrate, people often talk about “increasing support measures” and “improving the environment.” These are necessary.
However, what I frequently observe in my line of work is that, as support measures increase, so do the “options” available to individuals.
For example, sperm donation is one such option.
Whether or not you have a partner, your age, health, medical history, job, and living situation—when these conditions don’t align, people who previously had no choice but to “give up” or “wait” can now consider “alternative options.”
However, this isn’t simply a matter of “if everyone has a choice, the birth rate will rise.”
As the number of choices increases, so does indecision. The amount of information also increases. Time slips away. That’s why, the more choices there are, the more we need “the ability to manage” rather than “the ability to decide.”
Furthermore, since these statistics represent national averages, it’s difficult to see the actual disparities in the burden.Age, region, employment status, rent levels, distance from one’s parents’ home, and access to medical facilities—if even one of these factors is unfavorable, the hurdles to pregnancy and childbirth suddenly rise. Conversely, even if the system itself exists, without the time, energy, or information needed to use it, women are not actually in a position to “choose.” On paper, even if it’s the same single service, the difficulty of accessing it can vary significantly.
Even among the people I work with, not everyone has made a major decision right from the start. Some just want to gather information first; others want to see if they can balance treatment with work; and still others simply want to explore their options for the future. When I observe people at these stages, I realize that the declining birthrate isn’t just a matter of “fewer people having children”—it’s also a phenomenon where more and more people are pausing before making a decision. That’s why I believe what’s needed isn’t so much grand talk about ideals, but rather more pathways to help those who are hesitant sort through their real-world circumstances.
When I saw the news, it struck me as something a person could realistically do
Reading news about birth rates really gets to me.
Still, what individuals can do generally involves “getting back to normal life.”
Do you want children, or don’t you? Start by putting it into your own words.
If you do want them, identify just one bottleneck (time, cost, support, medical care, or a partner).
Instead of trying to “eliminate” that bottleneck “right away,” think about ways to “manage it so it becomes less of an issue.”
When you do this, the numbers in the news will shift from being a “distant concern” to “part of your own plan.”
And once they become part of your plan, your next steps will become concrete.
Summary: News about the 700,000-mark figure is both a “social issue” and a “statistical snapshot of daily life.”
A news report indicated that the preliminary number of births in 2025 was 705,809, marking a record low for the 10th consecutive year.
The number of deaths was 1,605,654, resulting in a natural decrease of 899,845.
Some analyses suggest that the number of marriages—505,656—has increased for the second consecutive year, highlighting the reality that marriage and childbirth are not simply linked.
These figures carry a lot of weight. But at the same time, they represent the aggregate of people’s everyday decisions—such as “I can’t do it right now,” “I’ll wait a little longer,” or “I’ll look for another path.”
While the debate over the declining birthrate is a major one, on an individual level, all we can do is work to reduce these bottlenecks one by one. My work is largely about creating the conditions that allow people exploring those “alternative paths” to actually move forward in practice.